History: Timeline Assignment

_ While scanning the events presented as part of the Learning Technologies Timeline, I couldn’t help but wonder whether there were patterns in the way the human society’s technology and know-how have developed. I kept searching for clues as to breakdowns, sections of time, where developments, inventions, and achievements could be successfully broken down. Glancing at Junghyun An’s Critique, I saw a unique and creative way in which our history and future were categorized. Studying the Timeline further, I realized that there were no real turning points in our achievement. I could only see what has happened before, what is happening now, and a prediction of what would happen in the future. Here, I saw a pattern develop.

_ Junghyun’s critique of the Timeline is not only thorough, it is innovative and quite convincing. My personal input is neither to support nor argue his points, but is merely my own point of view. Some parts of my analysis will agree, whereas others will not. Junghyun’s work is perfect for the points he was trying to get across. My take on the timeline is that there are only three sections: past, present, and future. Timelines are made so that we can evaluate the past; this timeline is different in that we must also evaluate, or predict, the future. Therefore the only logical way to come up on this great work of knowledge is to break it down by what people, personally, can experience.

_ From the past, inventions were created out of necessity. This timeline starts at the year 40,000 BCE (or BC as we might more commonly know it). 40k years before our common era as we know it, our ‘ancestors’ decided they needed another form of communication other than the common tongue. They decided to use art as a form of communication, a form we now label “cave paintings.” Through these paintings came our history; through these pictures came stories of over a thousand words. The problems with rocks are that there are not enough of them; they seem to have run out. 36k years later, in the year 4000 BCE, the Egyptians developed papyrus, a paper-like substance in which literature, knowledge, and history could be transferred onto, and passed long the generations.

_ From paper and art, came language. As the years passed along, alphabets were used to document history and literature, and these manuscripts were then transferred into the first Library, Ashurbanipal’s Royal Library. From this library, many people were educated until society deemed it necessary to construct the first University, in Athens, Greece. From then on, it seemed like smooth sailing.

_ Then, mysterious as it is, someone stopped other people from copying books. The Dark Ages, as everyone calls them, was a time of darkness. Not dark as in absence of light, but absence of knowledge, and the absence of the transfer of knowledge. It wasn’t until someone memorized part of the Bible on some remote island, secretly. That person was then ejected from his home only to fall upon a secret society of monks, whom then copied manuscripts in large. Then these manuscripts were then brought back to Europe, where they fell helplessly into the hands of, the Printing Press.

_ From there came the ability to print manuscripts at no time at all. Knowledge was spreading. Countries were exploring and conducting foreign negotiations, communication, and trade. Humanity as we know it starts to thrive. Wars would start and technology would be developed in order to produce better weapons and armor to fight those wars. While wars weren’t being fought, inventions like the steamboat and railroad were invented in order to promote exploration, communication, and transportation. Other inventions were created in order to promote entertainment and the well being of life. From then on came computers and computer technology, and this is what brings us to the present.

_ Presently, there are all sorts of innovations that are being introduced on a day-to-day basis. The best example of these is the Personal Computer. From 40k BCE to 1980 CE (or AD as we might know it), there were minor advances in computer technology. However, from 1980 to just four years ago, 1998, computer technology has grown at an exponential rate. In just the last four years, computers have advanced so much, any PC system on the shelf today could rival THE super-computer in 1998. Computers are only one example of thousands that could be pulled as an example.

_ Another example of a current technology is IV-Pumps, currently in production by companies such as Baxter, Abbott Labs, Cardinal Health, and etc. Simply four years, from 1998 till 2002, has advanced those pumps that are so critical in times of emergency, from a system where it was needed to sustain life, to systems now that can monitor and save lives, without having the error of wires… yes, wireless technology. Cell phones, DSL Modems, Cable modems, Routers, Networks, Satellite communication, are all advances in the past decade.

_ The past follows a trend of slow development. The past also follows a trend of developing as based on need. As time went on, that need based invention scheme transformed into a curious based invention scheme. Furthermore, that trend of slow development has transformed into a pace of high paced development. In the last decade, the new technologies have grown in such an exponential rate, that they dwarf what has happened in the past. To prove this trend, we follow the Personal Computer Technology Chart. In 1984, a microprocessor was placed into a PC for home use. In 1994, the 75mhz Pentium was introduced. In 1998, a 300mhz processor was top of the line. In 2000, a 700mhz processor was top of the line. In 2001, a 1.4Ghz processor was top of the line. In the beginning of summer 2002, a 2.26Ghz processor was top of the line. In the end of summer 2002, a 2.8Ghz processor is top of the line. The trend is exponential, and has no sign of stopping.

_ What then of the future. According to the timeline, in three years we will have a fully functional online university. Some may argue that this prediction is far fetched. In my opinion, if we can gain 600Mhz of processing power in a HOME PERSONAL COMPUTER in one summer, then what is to stop us from moving even faster? These gains are ever more large in the computers that the military uses. In three years, the university prediction will be stale. I wouldn’t be surprised to see dozens of those universities around. There are already programs to obtain your Masters Degrees online.

_ In the year 2008, there will be the first online terrorist. I’m sorry to stay this, there probably already is one? Any day, the mainframe of the Pentagon could be hacked, and all of the US’s most top secret information will cease to be secret. A virus could be inputted, and that would do much more damage than any Nuclear Weapon. This is the age of information, and none of these predictions are far fetched.

_ The future will be even faster than this timeline predicts. The timeline is perfectly accurate in portraying the past; the timeline is great at producing the present. The future could use some tweaking. The time in which our society needs to make those advancements is underrated. They are already trying to input the human enzyme into a microprocessor because the reaction/processing time it takes for our enzymes to react make even the most advanced microprocessor as slow as a worm in comparison to an Indy-500 race car. Star Trek is sure to come sooner than we think. Artificial, organic limbs will come faster than we think. Holographic representations will be used to educate students. Holographic images will be used to dissect instead of real live specimen. And as psychologists have predicted already, we as humans use about 15-20% of our brain; if we could use even 50% of our brain, we wouldn’t need our bodies to survive.

_ This timeline was started out of need, furthered by curiosity, and is now unfinished by wonder. One can only predict what might happen in the future, and from my opinion, these predictions are as accurate as they come. My only critique is that the future is closer than it seems.